The aging population of Europe

The dramatic gain in living standard that has been seen in the western world after second world war, and especially since the seventies, may be short lived because of the reasons that caused it in the first place.  Namely the decrease in birth rate. The simple thought may be that an economic stimulus for child rich families could solve the whole problem. Even though an easy fix is everyones wish in every obstacle in life, the imminent demographic crisis of Europe should be investigated more through-fully to see which measures may proof being the right medicine. As a doctor would state it. "we need to know what's causes the problems to prescribe the right medicine". Some may see it so that an decrease in population would be a welcome blessing for the world, but is it really so?

The hungarian case

The Budapest Times writes that in Hungary the population now have reached the Symbolic slide below 10 million. It has been well known that this day would come among hungarians, long enough that possible changes to the welfare system could have been in function already, with success. Anyway the young ones are not convinced that it is a smart thing to bring forth children or a child at all. It is a clear conscious opinion among hungarians that you don't give birth to more children than what you can support financially towards  a full educational university degree. Because of the thought that it is better to make sure that one or two children gets what they need than hawing more and none of them being successful, most hungarian women gets one or maximum two children. This may not seam unfamiliar to wast regions of Europe nowadays, however the phenomena  has now existed since the late seventies among the hungarian population. Thus it can be understood that many of todays parents do not have siblings and find a family with only one child perfectly normal.

Social implications to the society

It may be uncertain to know how the correlation between social status and child-richness are inherited and reproduced in following generations. One of my teachers at the Technical University of Budapest stated grave concern about that well-educated people does get less children than those not so educated and that this in the end would degenerate the population. In darwinist perspective this may be a concern shared by everyone who may understand the nature of natural selection. Whether the further evolution of the human population mostly is going to be derived from the survival of the smartest, fittest or highest number of immediate offsprings remain to be known. The modern way of living may change the pattern of selection or, if not, our nature may proof less controllable and peek nose at us at the end. When looking at the merits of human activities no other species on earth have eliminated so many other. What if we eliminated our selves, it very well may happen.

Birth rate, immigration and ethnic composition changes

Low birth rate within Hungary has in some way over the years been compensated for influx resettling of hungarians from neighbouring countries due to the Trianon treaty and final border settlement after second world war. At the same time as this flow is decreasing, increases in birth money and support for families probably is one reason to a positive effekt reducing the population decrease. As for 1990 the change was -3,1% year over it had shrunk to  -0,7% for 2009. Total fertility rate got below 2 in the 80-ties and steadily decreased until few years ago and reached 1,37 in 2008.  It is estimated that five to ten percent of the population is roma people. At the same time every fifth or sixt child is roma. Only 80% of roma children finish primary school and their living conditions are very much below average. This trend will eventually lead to tensions, instability and buckling of the welfare system since it is dependent on the collective effort of its individuals.

The case has its siblings

Hungary is in no way special in the problematic issues mentioned above. Many countries  in Europe is having the same problems with decreasing  populations, change in population composition and differing fertility rates among its domestic ethnic groups. One of the claimed sources that may have led to the Kosovo war is the relative ratio change between serbian and albanian populations. The birth rate among Albanians was and is dramatically higher than among the serbians. The dramatically increasing albanian population did most certainly put the serbian minority under pressure in every sense. How despicable the Serbian actions that led to the Kosovo war may have seamed in the west, some of the same type of causes may lead to new clashes between ethnic groups in many places within Europe. Even within the major cities.

Segregated immigration populations

In western Europe, what may seam like instability factors due to domestic native ethnical populations in Eastern- and Central-Europe, the immigrant populations may case similar concerns. Certain ethnic groups does have an very high fertility rate combined with low work attendance. While there may be good reasons for not voluntarily assimilating to the western culture dogma, securing welfare services may proof more lucrative than working for the same money and mastering the etiquette of European manners. As ghettos form in the cities of western Europe segregation accelerate. Economic support when giving birth is more appealing for the poorest groups in the immigration population. If it wasn't for the immigration and the fertility rate among these also those few western european countries above the self-sustaining fertility rate level would have been below. Anyway if the pattern of the immigrant parents are being inherited by the offsprings similar instability as seen in eastern and central europe may occur in the west. The children of immigrants does however seam likely to align with the general choices of the population than with their parents in regards to fertility rate. This seams to further align with the average with the next generation which can be an proof of that segregation between immigration population and natives is in smaller degree inherited by offsprings.

Are there sane reasons for getting children?

Hence to the fact that children are born despite remedies of preventing it to happen and the risk it impose, certainly there are reasons for that people still are getting children. Before the invention of the welfare state the main reasons seam to have been lack of prevention and the security of having lot's of children ready to take care of you as you get old. It seams also like that humans for thousands of years have understood that their decedents inherit their parents characteristics which likely have meant something special for them as well. Today we know that this information is stored within the DNA.  While in older times a big family may have granted a high status in society, this is generally not what gives status in western societies of today. A child and possibly family of two parents is likely part of some self-realisation. The success of the child may also be seen as a measure of how well the parent have succeeded in life and thus one child may give one bigger success than dividing the effort in two, three or four. 

Pregnancy may only be an option a short time in life

Career may also be placed on hold for too long if choosing to carry forth more children, this combined with the many years within the education system may in practice reduce women's time for being pregnant to maximum fifteen years and certainly less if establishing a secured workplace has to be done first. It is simply not feasible to make more children than two or three in best cases. At the same time women may need a fixed workplace to be granted birth money before it's economically sane to bear forth a child. A dependency of the mothers status may also make it impossible for the father to be at home with children.

Men vary about becoming fathers

His chances after a divorce to maintain contact with the child(ren) most certainly can be ruined due to women being favorably treated by the law. Due to this men may be more vary than in earlier times before engaging in making a child on purpose, or having sex without condom for that matter. As women may be more in hurry finding the right man, if a father for the child is wanted at all, the time can be strictly limited hence to the prerequisite of the biological clock still ticking and at the same time having a fixed work position where pregnancy leave is accepted. Men likely may increasingly hesitate in engaging in making children based on insecure relations. After a break he is likely to pay the mother with little or no contact with his own child. For many men such family relations aren't really what they aim for. 

Counter feminism streams among europeans

There are groups of people in all european countries who choose conservatively and counter feminism dogma. These may be religious or simply family-oriented people. Mostly they upkeep the traditional post-war work-order where the man is working and the women is taking care of the home and the organizing of the family life. While it is becoming increasingly difficult to fund such a family life on a single income, this solution require the man to earn nearly twice of an average income. This in turn makes this a solution only available to the few. Since this isn't an available option any more for the vast majority,  both women and men alike, may feel unhappy with both feminism and an welfare system increasingly based on the feminism. An ideology where men are obliged to step aside so that women can be like men while women still remain privileges over men in family matters. This is doomed to fail badly. Some people see this already others don't. One of the main faults of feminism is the goal of being independent of men in every field. We all know that men and women are equally dependent on each others to fuse genes in the proces of making a child. Off course labs may make us all replaceable in this field, but based on our own bodies only persons of oposite sexes can create children together. Furthermore for a child to successfully grow up there is an mutual understanding that mother and father together improves the chances  of the child by cooperating. Regardless of if they live together or not. Why should really a man engage in family and children if women only see him as an sperm donor for their solely owned child?

Post-patriarchal and post-feminism solution on the european demographic crisis

As it became clear in the 1970-ties the originally "middle class patriarchal family model" no longer could coexist with the social democratic ideas of equality between sexes and classes, which eventually made it possible for women to gain economic independence and freedom. In 2010 it might already be the feminist ideas that are out of date. While equality between sexes has come a long way, equality between classes are increasing. Families are having harder times keeping together and much too many children are traveling between quarreling parents. In other words families are under stress. European societies are simply not ideal for establishing families, never mind how trivial the problems may seam from less privileged parts of the world. The missing stimuli is: giving mothers and fathers mutual interests, rights and compensation for prioritizing their children. As human behavior is very adaptive to the system preferences invoking in their lives, we have to learn very well how the changes of these affect our well-being. You may push us harder and harder away from our preferred choices derived from our real human nature, the harder you do so the more adverse side effects may be seen. The more dysfunctional individuals the society creates the worse society will be.

Back to the roots

We may have laughed long enough of parents getting way many more children than they can support in "primitive" parts of the world. We tend to forget that the family in many places is the sole welfare system for every individual of it. It is an very small model of the welfare system of a modern developed country. Differences are that it is easier to commit yourself to your family than an abstract security system like the welfare state. Anyway the lack of children within an welfare state does pose a risk of that there will not be enough children and grandchildren to take care of the grandparent generation. Also in the old fashioned family based welfare model, grandparents may not have been able to do har fysical work, but they certainly could look after kids and teach useful skills learned through  their long life. In some way, while the fit adults could secure food and do other work intensive tasks, grandparents would take care of "School and kindergarden". Europe should off course not eliminate the welfare state and reimpose primitive stateless societies. The needed reform rather is about rewarding work in family.

Necessary measures

Such a reform to the welfare system may have negative side effects. To adjust total fertility rate up and down the support for child one, two, three, four etc. may be changed slightly annually. To make attractive also for highly educated persons to spend time on making and rising up children, work with children may also be rewarded significantly with pension points. This would somehow also be logical hence to that those who bring forth new young citizens also contribute to that there is sufficient work force to also take care of the elderly and ill in next instance.  The point should though never be that everyone has to make children wether they like to or not. A free society does give its citizens a fair chance to make their own choices towards what they find a meaningful livable life. A good welfare state should always seek to herress its citizens as little as possible and at the same time strive to fullfil the human rights as is. At the same time a good system does reform to further stimulate human development.

Last remark

We are not more than the sum of us all, and at the same time neither better than our failures and successes.  If Europe is going to survive and evolve to a higher state. Beneficial behavior for us all must be appreciated and rewarded rather than destructive behavior as may be the case today. Europe is at present moving towards a moral-crisis. Individualism, egoism, relativism, feminism, socialism, sexism, anarchism and capitalism have all eroded the deeds of traditional European culture. Our simplistic close sighted views have made us unaware of what we are part of and how we are interconnected. Our well-being dependent on every individuals collective contribution. Keeping up an healthy fertility rate is part of securing our societies. The demographic crisis of Europe seams rooted in failed ideologies, a welfare system that doesn't reward constructive behavior enough, moral crisis and the shortsightedness in politics. Is there security if the welfare systems colapse? Right now Europe needs healthy families.